From a report from Toyota Motor Thailand Co., Ltd., a manufacturer and distributor of Toyota cars, which acts as an intermediary for dissemination. Car retail statistics from operators indicate that In the first quarter of 2024 (Jan. - Mar. 2024), the Thai car market of all brands had a sales volume of 163,756 vehicles, a decrease of 24.6%. If divided into checks, it was found that the passenger car market Sales volume 65,615 units, decreased 15.4%, commercial vehicle market Sales volume 98,141 units, decreased 29.7%, 1-ton pickup truck market (Pure Pick up and PPV modified pickup truck*)
Sales volume was 56,425 units, a decrease of 44.4%, and the pickup truck market (Pure Pick up) had a sales volume of 46,611 units, a decrease of 44%. It can be seen that in the first quarter The car market is negative every checkout. with the pickup market which is the heart of the small economy and farmers had the highest decrease of 44.4%
Car sales have decreased for 17 consecutive months.
Considering the industry goals assessed at the beginning of 2024 that there will be sales for the whole year of 800,000 cars, which means The Thai car market has recently sold only 20% of the target. which in the remaining 3 quarters If the target is to be achieved, sales must be accelerated to 210,000 units per quarter.
“The important thing is that the Thai car market It has been negative for 17 consecutive months from November 2022, showing a clear decline.”
4 negative factors that have a strong impact
Considering the decreased sales in the market in the first quarter. Factors affecting car trading have not changed, both positive and negative factors show The old factors that influence the Thai automobile market have not yet been remedied.
4 negative factors
1. The national economy is weak - resulting in consumers Not confident in investing in a car? and choose to postpone purchases to the future causing the overall car market to grow slowly
2. Purchasing power is still limited. Due to the continuous slowdown of the overall economic sector - many people have heard complaints from merchants and general markets about sales decreasing by almost 1/3 because people do not have purchasing power, which is quite severe. From the beginning of 2024 onwards
3. Strictness in lending financial institution We have increased caution in filtering customers. and gradually getting darker This policy reflects an abnormal situation. that financial institutions recognize the risk in lending from the amount of bad debt incurred More than 80% of car purchases in Thailand use the credit system. Restricting consumers' ability to purchase cars It has a huge impact on the car market.
4. Continuing effects from the delay of the 2024 budget which affects the operations of the public and private sectors –Large government projects Connecting the market for trucks, earthmoving trucks, cement trucks, and various material handling vehicles. affected
Electric car sales dropped 25%
From a Toyota report in February 2024, it was stated that there were positive factors affecting the overall automotive industry, such as the sales proportion of the domestic passenger car market that expanded well. The popularity of electric vehicles (EVs) has benefited from government price support measures. As well as the number of Thai car exports which has increased from the proportion of production for export in the past period to compensate for the delay in car delivery due to the shortage of important parts causing production to be delayed in the past. previous year
which in this first quarter Positive factors for exports remains unchanged In particular, Thailand was still able to export more automobiles despite the decreased export growth rate.
Previously, check out electric vehicles The rising star of the market is the catalyst for the growth of the passenger car market segment. from the rapid launch of new car companies and the popularity of consumers, but that influence will end at the end of 2023, as seen from the first quarter of 2024. The passenger car market slowed down by 15.4% from previously being the only checkpoint out of 4 that showed growth. and electric vehicles (BEV) in March 2024 Sales were at 5,167 units but volume growth decreased by 25.6%.
Predicting a short-term recovery in April.
Toyota's report also states that Positive factors of the automobile market in April 2024 It is likely to improve as the domestic tourism trend tends to improve. From the Songkran festival, it is possible to increase the amount of money circulating within the country. and is considered one of the positive factors for the economy as a whole. And including the start of delivery of new cars reserved at the 45th Bangkok Motor Show is a positive factor and starting to have a positive effect on the car market.
It is noteworthy that In April every year Car sales will be in a positive direction. But plus only one month From the purchase amount at the motor show Then other months After April onwards If there are still the same negative factors like this The market continues to be negative and this year is expected to be the same. After April, the market will also be negative.
BYD rises to number 6 in the Thai car market
It can be seen that all leading car brands at the Tier 1 level Still standing at the forefront of the market in the midst of pressure, including Toyota, Honda, Isuzu, these 3 companies together control over 66% of the market. However, other Tier 1 grade cars that used to be famous have slowed down. brands such as Nissan and Mazda, while having outstanding brands and was able to step up and capture 6.1% of the total car market share, ranking 4th. of the best-selling cars in the first quarter That is BYD (BYD) chasing Isuzu (14.9%) at the end of 2023. BYD has a market share of only 3.9%, which is considered the success of Chinese car brands that have successfully penetrated the barrier of Japanese cars. In fifth place is Mitsubishi, with a market share of 4.6%, moving from 4.2% at the end of the year. Mitsubishi performed well in the first quarter in the passenger car market. Able to rank 3rd with sales of 4,954 vehicles, a decrease of 5.1% and holding 7.6% market share, behind Toyota (25.3%) and Honda(21.6%)
In the first quarter, there were two more car brands from China that were in the top 10 car brands that dominate the market, namely MG (MG), which performed well due to the popularity of the MG4 electric car model and Great Wall (GWM). Good Cat model car sales volume
The market in the second quarter is still slowing down.
From the evaluation Overall economic growth rate (GDP) by TTB that estimates the overall economic growth rate is 2.6%. SCB EIC estimates that Thai GDP will expand to 2.7% from 3%, which is normal. The car market will have growth numbers in line with GDP, that is, if GDP expands by 2.7%, the car market should expand by at least 2% or more.
However, from the negative factors of the economy It should affect the movement of the market. What hasn't changed is a deceleration of more than 20%.
An important factor that influences this is that government spending still does not play its full role. To help drive the economy in the first half of the year This is because the draft budget (October 2023 - September 2024) has not yet been paid. But expect the steps when required. Budget disbursement will accelerate at a much faster rate. After drafting the budget Approved to enter into force (Expected in May)
As with similar events in the previous fiscal year (October 2019 - September 2020), additional economic stimulus projects Especially the Digital Wallet project with a budget of 500 billion baht, which is still uncertain. whether it can be carried out or not If it can be done, it may be effective at the end of the year.
The market puts pressure on automakers to sell less.
Thai car market during the transition of technology This causes a market situation with many players. by a new car brand that has just entered the market It will make the competition more intense. From the market's inventory and compete with new player which wants to open its own product market, resulting in increasing quality standards or "reducing prices" in order to compete in the market Affecting changes in consumer purchasing patterns, market conditions that left the cake mostly smaller. Consumers will trust in the main brands as insurance against risk. It will be seen that 66% of the market is in the hands of only 3 car brands, while more than 40 other brands have only cake left to share. 34% and if this is the case With automakers occupying less than 10% of the market, dealers will not be able to make a profit when they can't take a slice of the pie. The parent company may downsize its business. As for local dealers or investors, they will start to switch to more companies in order to Seeking new profitable brands for survival
